A new military conflict in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Oil and natural gas prices surged as Israeli and US strikes on Iran, and retaliation by Tehran, forced shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose as much as 13% to $82.37 a barrel, its highest since January 2025.
The impact on gas markets was even more dramatic. European natural gas futures soared more than 40%, while Qatar shut down liquefied natural gas production after drones struck key facilities. About 20% of global LNG exports come from the Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz has become the central flashpoint. Tanker traffic through the strait came essentially to a halt after Iran declared it closed, with about 20% of global oil consumption normally passing through the waterway. Four vessels were hit in Gulf waters since the conflict began.
Analysts warn the worst may be ahead. A three- to four-week squeeze on Strait of Hormuz traffic could force Gulf producers to shut output entirely and push Brent above $100 per barrel, according to JPMorgan. All eyes remain on whether the conflict escalates further or finds a diplomatic off-ramp.
